As someone who just got their first II this week, I have spent a loooong time neurotically obsessing over admit data and have taken no comfort in the typical 'iTs a lOnG cyCLe' because it feels like survivorship bias. That being said, I want to put some very rough context to where we are in the cycle based on last year's admit data.

Is it cope? Maybe.

Like you, I have heard many people say that October is when interviews would pick up, and while that does seem to be the case for many schools, in years past many others didn't actually pick up until well after.

Emory for example has given out just a THIRD of the interviews they gave out last year (similar total apps). Last year, more IIs were reported in November than any other month, and more IIs were reported in January than October.

At this time last year, Tulane had given out ~40% more IIs than they have this year, despite a greater number of applications. They are also below the '50% of IIs given out' assuming a similar number of IIs given out last year.

VCU gave out a similar number of interviews last year in October November AND December with a significant fall off only coming once we got into the new year.

Dartmouth gave out more IIs in January last cycle than they did in September.

UMass gave out 14% of their IIs in January last cycle, more than in both November and December.

Case Western gave out the second most interviews in January last cycle (first was August to high stat gunners, not October fyi).

Duke gave out nearly the same number of interviews in December and January each as they did in September and November combined.

Last year, the University of Illinois gave out the most IIs in FEBRUARY.

This obviously isn't every school, but my point is, the cycle genuinely is long. The general consensus that '50% of IIs have gone out now' isn't necessarily true, and is often pedalled by people who seem to know what they are talking about, but have either an egotistical or financial incentive to make you feel scared or less than. Interviews do genuinely seem to be spread out over time at many schools, and a mix of rolling/non rolling schools.

If this cycle had a disproportionate increase in the number of applicants like many people have said (cope or not), these numbers only become more favourable.